A cloudy, rainy Saturday will give way to more powerful storms Saturday night, bringing the risk of damaging wind gusts, flooding, and isolated tornadoes overnight into Sunday.
According to the National Weather Service, a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will quickly "develop and intensify" as it moves to the northeast.
It is forecast to move onshore between the greater Tampa Bay region and the Big Bend on Saturday night into Sunday morning.
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Beforehand, coastal counties across the Tampa Bay area will be under a high surf advisory Sunday from 1-7 a.m.
A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect from Saturday night at 7 p.m. until Sunday at 7 a.m., and the weather service warns of a high risk of rip currents from late Saturday night through Monday morning.
A River Flood Warning is also in affect for the Alafia River through Sunday morning.
Forecasters say a gale warning will be in effect along the coast Saturday night, and rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are likely, along with possible wind gusts of 30 mph and higher.
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Higher rain totals are possible, and could produce localized flooding. But there is a low chance of flash flooding.
The risk of coastal flooding will take place mainly north of Anna Maria Island and extend into Sunday morning as the system moves to the north and winds shift from the south.
That flooding risk "will gradually subside" Sunday afternoon from the southeast to the northwest as winds decrease, according to the weather service. Still, coastal areas will remain at a risk for high rip currents and high surf.
Conditions are expected to improve Sunday night as a high pressure system returns to the area Sunday night, with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures into the middle of the work week.
